The six states bordering the Great Lakes have a slight Republican majority (39-38) despite being either neutral or Democratic states.  Michigan and Ohio are also promising spots to pick up seats in 2008.  The best spots in the Northeast are New York, even with a delegation consisting of 23 Democrats and 6 Republicans, and New Jersey (7-6 in favor of the Democrats).

Three NJ seats were won by Republicans with 58% of the vote or less; all 7 Democratic seats were won with at least 66%.

Eight OH seats were won by Republicans with 59% or less.  OH-1 (53%), OH-2 (51%), OH-3 (58%), OH-5 (57%), , OH-12 (58%), OH-14 (58%), OH-15 (51%), OH-16 (59%).

Good post, RT.  Why we can't beat Weller is beyond me.  Clem Balanoff came the closest, IIRC, in '96.  Weller is a walking PAC ATM and now the son-in-law of a former Central American dictator.  Why can't we get rid of him?

Plus, in IL-10, Kirk may vacate the seat to take on Durbin for Senate.  Kirk will probably do a little better than Alan Keyes, but not much.  With that seat vacant, and the experience that Seals got this time, we should really be organizing to take this one, finally.

And someone please tell the DCCC to stay out of IL-6 and let Christine Cegelis have another shot.  While it will be tougher to win with Roskam as an incumbent, suppose the Rs are as unpopular in '08 as they are now?  He won't be able to run away from his likely-to-be hideous record.

I hope I'm wrong, but the Illinois Democratic party does not fill me with much optimism when it comes to redistricting in 2011. They sold out David Phelps in 2001 so the Chicago Democrats could keep their little super-safe fiefdoms. So instead of making Shimkus and Phelps go at it in a 50/50 district, they made it 55/45 GOP, gave the Democratic parts of Phelps's old district to Tim Johnson (but took out the even more Democratic parts of Johnson district, making it really hard for Dems to win there, Dr. Gill did really well for having poor fundraising and a stacked deck against him), and basically forced him out of office.

So I don't know if they have the will to make those Dem victory margins in Chi-land 25% instead of 60% or 100%. If they did, Roskam would be gone, Hastert's seat might be gone, Kirk's seat would be gone, Weller's seat would be gone and Biggert's seat would be gone.

That's a possible switch from 10-9 D to 15 - 4 D.
Actually if some of the Chicago Dems wanted to keep their super-safe districts, they could focus on downstate IL and make the republicans sweat down here.
For example, they could take out some of the super-republican areas in IL-15 and make the district based the central Illinois university towns. So that'd be Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington-Normal (not just republican bloomington like it is now), and Mattoon-Charleston. The district will still have slight republican lean, but it would be very close. Then take away some republican areas from the 11th (since you're taking out Democratic Normal) and replace them with Democrats in the Joliet area and make the district a Democratic exurban district based around Joliet and Kankakee.

Or even better, is make the 11th a super-safe republican district by shifting it northward to incorporate much of the 14th and then make the 14th centered around Joilet, Kankakee, Dekalb, and some of the south-side so Hastert is forced to retire (if he's still in there).

Whatever we do, we should be able to get at least 3 more Dems in the delegation. Anything short of that and there needs to be a revolt in the party.

I can't do that anymore since I've moved. So all my fellow Illinoisans need to keep working at taking the party back.

I just have no faith that Mike Madigan will undo all the deals he's made over the years to keep the distribution of power status quo . . . and I think the corruption issues that pervades both parties in IL are so overwhelming that nothing will actually be done to further political goals.

I heard Cegelis speak recently, and she was asked if she were thinking of running again: she didn't give an answer one way or another, but she did talk about the damage done in the district by the last election, and how difficult that would be to overcome.  Duckworth bussed in paid "volunteers" to do the grassroots -- and the college kids weren't particularly committed to the cause, and did nothing to develop the base for future campaigns.  Roskam who was a state senator from the area does have a whole network of personal connections in the District, and does have a very good ground game.  I think he will keep his head fairly low in Congress, and given that the Dems will be controlling what gets to the floor, his record probably won't be that bad.  He'll be hard to beat. Did any Democrats win in DuPage in the last cycle?  I don't think so, though several came very close.  So there are NO elected officials who are Democrats in DuPage Co.  That makes it very difficult to have a credible brand.  

Much harder to take down. Christine Cegelis spent 2006 helping other Democratic candidates get elected like Kagan in WI-8 by working with an organization that stressed economic issues in rural districts where people are getting clobbered. Changing the debate in those districts from abortion and gay marriage to kitchen table economic issues (minimum wage, "free" trade deals, etc.) made a huge difference.

Think Duckworth will ever spend her time getting other Democrats elected? One of the main arguments for Christine in the primary was, win or lose, she would build progressive infrastructure we could count on in future elections in DuPage County. Now, instead, we're back to square one. This is the exact OPPOSITE of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy.

Why wait to redistrict  until 2012?  Why not do it now?  If DeLay can do it....

You're wrong about the DCCC only spending money on Duckworth.  They dropped about $150k on direct mail for Dan Seals during the end stretch.

Ultimately, it wasn't enough, but that would have been an expensive intervention if they decided to go up on the air.

GOOD LUCK!

Unless and until you find enough dynamite to blast Michael Madigan out of Springfield, you'll never get "responsible" redistricting in IL. He's far more worried about protecting incumbents (on both sides of the aisle) than he is growing the Party. Especially in DuPage County, where is WAY too cozy with incumbent Republicans, to even consider rocking the boat.