According to a new NPR poll, rural America is split almost 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans right now. (PDF of detailed poll results.)
Rural voters in swing Senate states supported the GOP candidate by only a 47-43 margin in the poll (a statistical tie), and rural voters in swing House districts were split 45-45 between the two parties' candidates. (In the poll questions, the two parties' candidates were identified by name in each state/district, rather than by generic party tag, which suggests that these results are pretty firm.)
The poll showed the three most important issues among rural voters to be Iraq, the economy, and the war on terror. One dynamic that's apparently making a difference is that 73% of rural voters, according to the poll, have a family member, friend, or acquaintance who's served or is serving in Iraq. Whatever news the troops are sharing with their friends and family, it clearly isn't Administration happy talk.
The only thing that concerns me about the poll is the small sample size. They sampled 529 likely voters in rural areas, of which 334 were in swing Senate states, and 299 in swing Congressional districts, which yields MOEs (by my calculation) of 4.3% on questions asked of the whole sample (which is OK), and 5.4% and 5.7%, respectively, on the Senate and House preference questions.
But we've all noticed that the Dems are suddenly competitive in a lot of fairly rural districts this year, and this opens up some insight as to why. It's not just the 50-state strategy - but the 50-state strategy puts Dem candidates in a much better position to take advantage of unexpected shifts in voter sentiment like this one.
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