NPR Poll: We're Winning Back Rural America

According to a new NPR poll, rural America is split almost 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans right now.  (PDF of detailed poll results.)

Rural voters in swing Senate states supported the GOP candidate by only a 47-43 margin in the poll (a statistical tie), and rural voters in swing House districts were split 45-45 between the two parties' candidates.  (In the poll questions, the two parties' candidates were identified by name in each state/district, rather than by generic party tag, which suggests that these results are pretty firm.)

The poll showed the three most important issues among rural voters to be Iraq, the economy, and the war on terror.  One dynamic that's apparently making a difference is that 73% of rural voters, according to the poll, have a family member, friend, or acquaintance who's served or is serving in Iraq.  Whatever news the troops are sharing with their friends and family, it clearly isn't Administration happy talk.

The only thing that concerns me about the poll is the small sample size.  They sampled 529 likely voters in rural areas, of which 334 were in swing Senate states, and 299 in swing Congressional districts, which yields MOEs (by my calculation) of 4.3% on questions asked of the whole sample (which is OK), and 5.4% and 5.7%, respectively, on the Senate and House preference questions.

But we've all noticed that the Dems are suddenly competitive in a lot of fairly rural districts this year, and this opens up some insight as to why.  It's not just the 50-state strategy - but the 50-state strategy puts Dem candidates in a much better position to take advantage of unexpected shifts in voter sentiment like this one.



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Re: NPR Poll: We're Winning Back Rural America (none / 0)

Social Security is also more important in rural areas (more likely to be the sole or main means of support) so this is the one domestic issue I'd play up next month if I were a Dem candidate in a rural area.


by Mimikatz on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 02:06:13 PM EST

Re: NPR Poll: We're Winning Back Rural America (none / 0)

Dad once raised cattle and sheep in eastern Oregon.  He used to sniff that the farmers were all Democrats and that it was the shoe salesmen in town who were Republicans. [For some unknown reason, shoe salesmen were Dad's equivalent of George Allen's macacas.]

Dad somehow overlooked the royalty in the huge high desert valley whose spread was perhaps more valuable than that of all the rest of the farmers put together. The way to keep the common touch the Lord of the Valley had determined was to eat at least once a week with the ranch hands living in the bunkhouse.  According to my mother, her Ladyship, who was a state Republican chairwoman, used to decry the waste of money on such profligacies as public schools.  The peasantry wanted their kids educated?  They should pay for it themselves.  Public money should be reserved for taking care of the rich.  My mother sometimes exaggerated - a little.

Republicans had dominated the area forever.  Later it turned blue and has since reverted to red. The Democrats, dominated by city elites, long ago wrote off the farm folk.  Dumb move I think.  Lots of votes that could be harvested in rural areas, even among shoe salesmen in town, but Democrats have chosen to let the votes rot on the ground.  Not obvious to me why a city slicker like Howard Dean would initiate change but I applaud one very smart dude. Must be a little country in the lad.

Best,  Terry


by terryhallinan on Sat Sep 23, 2006 at 03:57:13 AM EST


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