Please actually read this (I know you won't)

How is it fair to spend most of your time demanding that we count the votes from Michigan and Florida so that your candidate can be in the lead, but at the same time you ignore four of the caucus states in order to do that?

I repeat, how is it fair to spend so much of your time telling us that Michigan and Florida need to be counted, whatever their flaws, whilst still not counting Nevada, Iowa, Washington, and Maine?

Clinton supporters, you never seem to answer this.  The only popular vote totals that show your candidate ahead exclude those four states.  They exclude them because they did not officially announce how many votes each particular candidate got, though we can easily figure it out based on the percentages each candidate got, and the total number of voters.

So please, I'm begging you, answer me on this one.  Why must two states count because it is undemocratic to omit them, yet these four are irrelevant, so much so that you never seem to acknowledge the problem?



Display:


They shoudl be counted (2.00 / 1)

All states should be. But isn't the problem that these four states haven't released actual vote totals? I guess the best thing we can do is estimate the popular vote totals in those caucus states that haven't released or didn't even keep raw vote totals.


by Mayor McCheese on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:05:48 PM EST

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

I agree with you.  And when we use vote estimates, it puts Obama back in the lead.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (2.00 / 1)

no estimates - no extrapolation -
if they have counts of citizens making their voices heard in these four states, then lets include them
if the Secretaries of States cannot certify the numbers, then how would we know
it's just such a bummer when you can't manage to bend the rules to fit your version of reality isn't it?
by pan230oh on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

Ah, so you're a troll.  I get it now.

Your principles don't matter to you in the slightest, it would appear.  The only thing that matters is a way to count votes that helps your candidate.

Why, oh why, don't these four states matter?  Hillary won one of them anyway.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (2.00 / 1)

Reaper, you have a logical flaw in your argument. In order for a troll's principals to matter, they must first exist.

</snap>


by Rationalisto on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (2.00 / 2)

The rules say it's a delegate race so since the pop vote is a "will of the voter" moral argument you have to  try to determine the will of the voters - all of the voters - or you lose the ability to use the argument. That means no zero out of MI.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

Key word: VOTERS

Caucus attendees can not represent registered voters at large.

Taking Texas and Nebraska as examples, it is clear that a public VOTE can produce very different results from a caucus.

You can not reliably extrapolate caucus results to the general populace.

Think what would have been in 2000 if we could have counted the Floridans that "would have voted had they known"...


by wblynch on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (1.66 / 3)

Caucus voters are sexist.  I can prove this by using CAPITAL LETTERS.


Donate to Hillary now!
by username6 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:41:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

You got up to 6 real quick - I've got money on double figures by August!


by interestedbystander on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:09:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (1.00 / 1)

I'd say triple figures.  I expect this account to last for maybe a day.  Luckily, I've prepared others.


Donate to Hillary now!
by username6 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:12:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

Love the link too.


by interestedbystander on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

That's an argument against the pop vote being a measure in this race since caucuses are allowed as I agree that caucuses are hard to reliably count since the states don't keep accurate tallies.

You don't get to change the rules because  you don't like the results. Not YOU but Clinton.  


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

Please reread what I wrote.  I am not talking about doing anything more than figuring out how many people showed up at the caucus and counting them as best we can.

I am not talking about projecting those results onto a larger group.  That's not what I meant, and I expect you to read this and acknowledge it.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

yep - he's leading by 80,751 or 0.22% according to RCP and you wonder why many dont think its over?


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:58:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

Does Canada us PR?  I wonder if this is partly an issue of perspective.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:09:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

huh? do you mean popular vote?  if so - yes and no - we have a pass-the-post system where we only vote for our MP (member of parliament) - the party that wins the most seats in the house, the defacto party leader becomes the prime minister.  but our system is also flawed as well.


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

No, I meant proportional representation.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:40:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They shoudl be counted (none / 0)

yes we do and that is one of the problems we have - we have huge cities like where i live where millions of people live who have areas that thousands of people which share the same weight as rural areas with very small populations.  so yes, from my perspective 1 person 1 vote is da bomb!


"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum
by canadian gal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here is how this will go. (2.00 / 9)

Ok, Let me tell you how this goes.

1) There will 10+ folks telling you that you that you are correct and you are asking the right questions.

  1. There will be another 7+ folks telling you that this question does not encourage unity.
  2. There will be 20+ comments that Hillary is really winning the popular vote, its fair to count this way, some backed with explanations on MI/FL and some with just strong assertions.  
  3. After an initial flare up this diary will die a natural death.
  4. In a couple of days a new diary will crop up claiming that Hillary is ahead in popular vote.
  5. A new response will crop up accusing the poster of being unethical/mathematically challenged.

Go back to step 1

Occasionally folks like me who like to watch the game will chime in with a holier than thou attitude :-)

Now back to the regularly scheduled programming ....
 


by v2r1 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:10:19 PM EST

Re: Here is how this will go. (2.00 / 1)

Yikes. You've been reading my mind.


by Rationalisto on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There is a word for it (2.00 / 5)

Spin.

What I do for a living is build and manage a huge budget for a state agency in one of the largest states in the United States.  In working with numbers every single day, and in answering politically charged questions every week, I can tell you that you can make your numbers mean almost anything you want them to mean.

You know that saying, "The Devil is in the details,"  well, the devil is in the assumptions.  Assumptions are your basis for including and excluding and making projections.  If you eff with the assumptions enough you can say anything you want with the numbers.  This is what I see here.


accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking
by Sychotic1 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:10:47 PM EST

Because shut up! That's why! (2.00 / 2)

That's the best you'll get from this crowd.


by JJE on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:15:02 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (none / 0)

It's the electoral votes! Strategy that the most Democrats obviously lacks after Bill Clinton.

Remember what happened to Gore; you can win the popular votes and not win the general Election.

Michigan and Florida = 44 electoral votes
Nevada, Iowa, Washington and Maine = 27 electoral votes

The Democrats obviously lacks the strategy to win the states with more electoral votes...no. 1
the reason why Florida (27 electoral votes) cannot be taking for granted.

The main reason why Hillary has a better chance than Obama on the General Election.

"Vote your conscience not your wallet"


by SHIBAM8P on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:21:39 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 3)

Your basing your opinion on polls from April and May. Those aren't something you can rely on.  The supers know it. Jerome knows it even if he won't say it. A few weeks ago Obama and Clinton were losing to McCain on those same maps. I didn't see any claims that she couldn't win back then.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:23:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (none / 0)

You just can't admit the fact that Obama will loss in the GE.  The Superdelegates is voting according to their frustration with Bill Clinton (ex. Ted Kennedy) after the Lewinsky scandals.  But it's not very smart... the Democrats will loss (again).  

The Democrats supporting Obama cannot see that fact that even though the country wants some change; no one wants extreme change like Obama.  He will not win in  the General Election.


by SHIBAM8P on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:32:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 3)

Twice in your comment you use the word fact for opinion. Please try again.


by futbol dad on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:40:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 1)

You are entitled to your opinion but it's baseless speculation and nothing more.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 2)

Your logic is as good as your spelling.


by interestedbystander on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 4)

"Fact."  You keep using that word.  I do not think it means what you think it means.


Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.
by mistersite on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:16:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 4)

So you're saying she's a front-runner with a favorable map and an inevitable victory on her side?

The problem is, she's been that before. That was over a year ago in the early reaches of the primary. Arguments about "electability" always seem to ignore a simple fact: in this election, she wasn't the most electable, despite prognostication saying she was.

If, over the course of the election process, she wasn't able to connect with those who should be receptive to her views despite an early lead, how can we be certain that she'll be able to convey her message to a mixed group that may not be entirely receptive?


by TCQuad on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ain't gonna happen. (2.00 / 2)

No one will give a precise and defining answer because there isn't one.


by temptxan on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:25:14 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 2)

Even though my state (Alaska) has a small population and only 13 pledged delegates, we had a huge turnout at the caucuses in February. The middle school in Anchorage was jammed, wall to wall, in every hallway and classroom. The parking lot was jammed and all the stores' parking lots were full in a mile radius of the school. There's no way an accurate count of voters could have been calculated. It must have been at least 4-5000 in Anchorage alone. The same thing happened in other cities and towns.
Obama won the caucuses (75%).
Obama won 9 of the elected delegates.

Yes, we're a small state. But we have a good chance of going from a red state for the past 40 years to a blue state this year.

We played by the Party rules. To trump our caucus results by some phony, discounted popular number for Alaska would really piss off thousands of Alaskan Democrats that froze their butts off in February to participate in our caucus.


Let the children lose it Let the children use it Let all the children boogie
by toyomama on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:43:44 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 1)

If popular vote were going to be a metric by which to decide a winner, then caucus states would have taken a count of the voters.

This was a delegate battle at the beginning of the primary and it remains that.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:03:49 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 0)

I agree with you totally.  But if some people are going to insist on using another metric, they should at least do so honestly.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:15:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (none / 0)

Agreed


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:21:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (none / 0)

Fair enough, but I still find the lack of a popular vote tally there inexcusable. How can we trust the results of the delegate allocation if even the organizers don't know or won't tell how many people actually participated?


by Mayor McCheese on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 1)

To be honest, as much as I read about how delegates are allocated I still get confused. We've got to trust the system.

However, I will concede that this close race between Clinton and Obama has exposed some serious flaws in the system. Perhaps we should require caucuses to keep popular vote totals and maybe even get rid of the superdelegates.

However, that's a fight for the convention and in fairness to the process cannot be put into play for this contest.


Voting for John McCain is not God bless America.
by SFValues on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:24:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Um.... (2.00 / 2)

...wouldn't Obama have a different campaign strategy if he knew that the so-called popular vote was the deciding factor??

People who argue this kind of remind me of when I play Candyland with my four year old, after I almost reach the top he makes a rule up in moves ahead of me...huh...maybe my boy should run for the Democrat nomination when he's old enough...He knows the "rules"...


I'm Ready For A Good Old GOP & John McCain Ass Kickin'!!!
by hootie4170 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:24:34 PM EST

Here's another no one will answer (2.00 / 2)

Explain Hillary's change of opinion regarding MI and FL as anything but changing the rules of the game when the game took a turn against her. Is there a single Clinton supporter who can explain why before her loss i Iowa she was OK with FL and MI having to conform to DNC rules, and why she only started talking about 'disenfranchisement' when she started losing? Anyone, anyone?
by mikeinsf on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:26:02 PM EST

Re: Here's another no one will answer (none / 0)

nothing....
by mikeinsf on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (2.00 / 1)

I'm not getting an answer on this one.

Either the loudest among you are trolls or you simply aren't willing to concede that there is a real world around us where real things happen, and not all of them help your candidate.

I mean, seriously, it is beyond excuse when your candidate demands that we count two flawed contests that violated the party rules but convneniently ignores four that followed them.

It is not intellectuall honest and most of you won't even try to explain it.

Because you can't.  The only answer to that charges it that you want to win and you'll use whatever crazy-ass tally of states and votes to give yourselves a talking point.

I'm sorry, I really am sorry that you didn't get the candidate you wanted, but why is it acceptable to lie?  I'm not saying that most of you are doing it, but you are buying into a lie when you refuse to think critically for yourselves.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:35:32 PM EST

Re: Please actually read this (I know you won't) (none / 0)

Real Clear Politics tracks popular vote with and without Michigan and Florida as well as with and without the four caucus states.  And every combination in between.  

They also track delegates which I beleive is the critical metric.


by Rick in Eugene on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:23:19 PM EST

Of Course if you Count the Washington (none / 0)

Beauty Pagent where Hillary was almost dead even the popular vote difference in minor. What states that broke the same rules as Florida and Michigan? They got away with it.


by hypopg on Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:39:38 PM EST


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